关于国家环保“十三五”规划的战略思考中和利华投资管理有限公司

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北极星节能环保网讯:“十三五”时期是全面建成小康社会的攻坚期、加快推进新型城镇化的关键期和全面落实依法治国基本方略的深化期，经济社会发展迈向和进入新常态，各项改革日益深入，环境保护面临重大转型和改善机遇。面对复杂而艰巨的环境保护形势和任务要求，需要正确识别当前的环境形势以及未来的重大环境保护问题。在此基础上，谋划“十三五”环境保护的规划体系、规划目标及基本策略，以更好的指导我国“十三五”环境保护工作，对于破解资源环境约束、全面改善环境质量、推动环保工作实现新突破具有重要意义。

1 当前环境保护形势的基本诊断

“十一五”期间我国环境保护取得了积极进展，特别是污染减排两项指标都超额完成规划目标。根据目前的监测和统计数据，《国家“十二五”环境保护规划》确定的7项约束性指标中，除了NOx排放总量控制指标之外，其他指标都已经于2014年提前完成。但是，我国的环境形势依然极其严重，主要污染物和二氧化碳排放量都居世界第一，总体上处于排放高平台期，环境质量总体上处于历史上最差的时期，对地下水、土壤和公众健康的影响还在上升，生态系统功能依然十分脆弱。根据耶鲁大学的全球环境绩效指数(EPI)评估报告，中国GDP总量在世界排名由2006年第四名上升到目前稳居第二名，而环境绩效指数从2006年的65分下降到2014年的43分，排名从第94名(参评133个)下降到2014年的第116名(参评132个)，倒数第17名。中国用40年的时间基本上完成了发达国家100多年的工业化和城市化发展进程，取得了举世瞩目的经济增长成就。但是，另一方面也只用了大约30年的时间“集聚”和“爆发”了发达国家100多年的环境问题。如果解决不好当前我国的环境问题，不但会严重影响社会经济的可持续发展和老百姓的健康，还可能会影响执政党和政府的公信力，影响国家的长治久安和中华民族的伟大复兴。

1.1 水污染是我国最严重的环境污染

当前我国水污染形势依然严峻，据《2013年中国环境状况公报》显示，全国十大流域劣V类水质占9%，25%以上的湖库出现富营养化。城市水体黑臭现象普遍，老百姓生活周边的景观水水质都得不到保证。地表水污染又造成地下水污染和土壤污染，目前全国超过50%的地下水已经污染，形成了常规污染物、有毒有机物、重金属、藻毒素、持久性有机污染物(POPs)等水体污染衍生物相互作用的复杂的流域性复合态势。流域水资源过度开发、水生态严重失衡、水质性缺水和水量性缺水问题并存。农村仍约有1亿人口饮水安全得不到保障，全国近岸海域四类和劣四类海水点位比例接近26%。

1.2 空气污染造成的健康影响不可忽视

2011年，世界卫生组织(WHO)发布世界城市空气质量报告，在91个国家中我国排名倒数第15位。北京市PM10年平均浓度为是WHO推荐标准的6.2倍，在91个国家1082个城市中排第1035名。全国估计90%的城市空气质量不能达标，有近6亿人口生活在有害于健康的空气中。近10年，全国城市能见度年平均下降了0.2公里。京津冀、长三角、珠三角等区域PM2.5污染严重，个别城市灰霾天数达200天以上。根据环境保护部环境规划院估算，2003-2010年期间，每年由于空气污染造成30万～50万人过早死亡。如果根据美国健康影响研究所(HEI)发布的《全球疾病负担报告2010》，我国由于细颗粒物造成的城市居民过早死亡人口为123万人，农村室内固体燃料污染造成的过早死亡人口约100万人。

1.3 土壤污染正在威胁公众食品安全

土壤保护明显滞后，部分地区土壤污染严重，耕地土壤环境质量堪忧，工矿业废弃地土壤环境问题突出，危及食品安全，POPs的环境健康危害效应已经开始显现。根据全国第一次土壤污染状况调查公报，全国土壤总超标率为16.1%，与“七五”全国土壤环境总体清洁的调查结果相比，40年来我国土壤环境呈现急剧恶化的趋势。全国受重金属污染耕地达3亿亩，污水灌溉污染耕地3250万亩，固体废弃物堆存占地和毁田200万亩。根据全国第一次土壤污染状况调查公报，耕地土壤点位超标率达到19.4%。由土壤污染派生的食品、蔬菜安全问题日益严重。全国大约有60-100万个污染场地。

1.4 生态系统功能和质量继续下降

2007年我国人均生态足迹为2.2全球公顷，在核算的153个国家中居第74位。生态足迹增加的速度远高于生物承载力的增长速度，已是生物承载力的2倍。1985-2008年，我国除西藏、内蒙古、新疆与青海四个省生态盈余外，其余大部分省份长期生态赤字。森林、草原等自然生态系统质量低下，结构简单化，局部破碎化、人工化明显。草地生态系统功能破坏，传统牧业区草地退化严重。湿地生态系统功能退化，湿地消失、面积萎缩严重，湿地自然调节能力下降。2010年，全国水土流失面积357万平方千米，占国土面积的37.2%，全国沙化土地总面积达173万平方千米，占国土面积的18.03%，我国南方8省(区、市)石漠化面积12.96万平方千米，并且以年均2%左右的速度扩展。据估计，我国野生高等植物濒危比例达15%—20%，部分濒危生物资源向国外出口，造成了生物资源的严重流失，外来物种入侵对农业安全、食品安全和生物多样性造成严重危害。

1.5 突发环境事件正在威胁社会稳定和安全

突发环境事件风险隐患大，布局性、结构性环境风险不容忽视。2005-2014年期间，发生了一批影响公众健康、社会稳定乃至国际影响的环境事件，环境保护部直接处置的事件共1078起，其中重特大事件83起。根据2009年环境保护部重点行业企业环境风险及化学品检查的结果，12.2%的企业距离饮用水水源保护区、重要生态功能区等环境敏感区域不足1千米，10.1%的企业距离人口集中居住区不足1千米，72%的企业分布在长江、黄河、珠江和太湖等重点流域沿岸。环境事件中以影响老百姓健康的事件最为突出，较大以上环境健康事件中累积性环境污染导致健康损害占总数的46.4%。

2 未来10年环境趋势的总体研判

在经济新常态和依法治国的大框架下，我国“十三五”时期的环境保护将迎来难得的历史机遇，同时也仍面临严峻的挑战。根据环境保护部环境规划院开发的《国家中长期环境经济预测模型系统》，通过建立经济社会预测模型、资源能源消耗预测模型、环境污染产排放预测模型方法，采用历年统计数据获得关键技术参数，充分考虑未来中国经济社会发展可能面临的国内外环境，以我国“十三五”期间GDP增长的三种情景为基准方案，预测到2020年中国资源能源消耗量和主要污染物排放量。

来源：环境管理

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